When the Indian Government and Military say they are ready for China, are they telling the truth?

The year 2024, just 14 months from now, is likely to be pivotal in India's history. In the book The Last War , military historian and veteran author, Pravin Sawhney has chosen the date 22 Feb 2024 when, as per the narrative of the book, China attacks India. Also, Xi Jinping has recently won his 3rd term in China. Today, on 9 Nov, he said that China's national security is facing increased instability and ordered the PLA to devote all its energies to enhancing capability and maintaining combat readiness to fight and win wars.

Since the Ladakh crisis that erupted in 2020, we have repeatedly been told by the government and the military that they are ready to take on China and Pakistan. Since several elections, state and centre, are coming up in the next 18 months, these assertions will only increase.

Where does the truth lie? To keep it manageable, we will take only the Chinese threat here, leaving aside that from Pakistan.

Is the Government ready?

The government assesses national security in a holistic manner and accordingly directs the military to prepare for certain scenarios. This is done by way of a document called the National Security Doctrine. In India, this critical document has not been issued even after 75 years. In its absence, the military prepares for its task as per the directive issued by the Defense Minister. The last directive it received was from the Defense minister in 2009, which said , 'We should be prepared to fight on both fronts simultaneously a war at 30 days (intense) and 60 days (normal) rates.' Since the government issued this directive in the year 2009, it must have believed at that time that it is a doable task and that whatever shortcomings existed, would be taken up in time before the worst happens.

So, what does a battle with Pakistan and China simultaneously, entail at the level of the government.

Battles are started by the military but sustained by the industrial and economic might of the nation. To this end, there is a very telling incident of World War 2 in which an officer of the German army, taken captive by the Americans, got into a conversation with the American guard. The guard boasted of military superiority, resulting in the Germans being captured. The German replied, 'It is like this. My anti-tank battery was knocking off each of your tanks that came over the ridge. After some time, we ran out of anti-tank ammunition, but you did not run out of tanks,'

That makes it relevant to compare the economic and industrial strengths of India and China.

It is well known that China is far ahead of India on both counts. What is even more damaging is that our existing industrial output and economy are quite dependent on Chinese imports. It is out of sheer necessity that we import greatly from the country we claim as our enemy i.e., China.

Did you know that after the bloody Galwan clash , China has pipped America to be India's chief trading partner in 2022? And this trade benefits China, not India.

The Print , in its latest YouTube episode 1189 — Why India's trade deficit with China is rising; double whammy of booming imports and falling exports — tells us that India's trade deficit with China is huge — and increasing. In the 9 months of this year, the deficit has been larger than India's defense budget. Not only have imports been increasing and the exports going down. Last year, the deficit was 69 billion dollars. This year, in just 9 months, it is already 89 billion dollars. In these 9 months, our imports have gone up by 44 percent and exports have gone down by 32 percent!

Can you fight the country you are so dependent on?

Economics apart, how has the Indian government prepared itself against China in international affairs, particularly in the immediate neighbourhood?

All nations of South Asia, except India and Bhutan, are now part of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) of China. BRI is about connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe through aspects of policy coordination, physical connectivity, unimpeded trade, people-to-people ties, and above all, monetary circulation. This is only phase 1 of BRI. Phase 2 is Digital Silk Route (DSR which is about hard and soft cyberspace connectivity. The ultimate objective of BRI is to offer development and security through cooperation.

With such a dependence on China, how much support our neighbors will give, or can give, to India against China, is anyone's guess. China is creating a new digital pathway that will make payments and business in BRI countries much more efficient. It will facilitate digital trade, finance, shipping, and monitoring systems. With this, India will be pushed into strategic and industrial irrelevance in its own neighbourhood.

But, ah, won't America come to our rescue? Well, it might, and it might not.

Much would depend on how its interests are served by helping India at that time. It is not under a treaty obligation to protect India, as it is for NATO countries. The only binding treaties between India and the USA are the ones that put Indian interests at great peril.

Between 2018 and 2020, this government signed two agreements with them — Communication Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperative Agreement )BECA). These two agreements are for sharing of information for military planning. in the book The Last War, Praveen Sawhney tells us that, “(With this), India has potentially mortgaged digitized military capability of its three services to the US. Through the twin routes of datasets (given under BECA) and systems (provided by COMCASA), India's kill claims (sensor-to-shooter networks working through a command center) would potentially be under the US's control through its massive cyber capabilities. The US could, if it desired, immobilize India's nuclear delivery systems, BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, multi-barrel rocket launchers, and so on.”

That's the crux of US-India agreements that are binding on both.

Is the Military ready?

The military has been tasked to fight a two-front war, as far back as 2009. Given that it has been 13 long years since then, it is fair to assume that it is ready for the task.

Is it?

The main strength of the Indian military is the commitment and courage of its men. However, their experience is mostly in fighting insurgents and terrorists who engage in 2s and 4s. There is simply no comparison between those encounters and battles involving long-duration, high-tech warfare between equals.

And what if the technical abilities of the other side are far superior?

What if Indian soldiers under attack do not see any human enemy but just swarms of mechanized drone bees that hover all over their defenses? Once they recognize an Indian face nearby, of which facial recognition parameters have been fed to their computer systems, the bee-shaped bullets enter the face of the Indian soldier and explode in the head. Fighter aircraft of the IAF trying to enter enemy airspace get repeatedly hit by anti-access, area denial, preprogramed missiles of the enemy. Hypersonic munitions start hitting the bridges on the Brahmaputra river, disconnecting Arunanchal Pradesh from the rest of India. Similarly, the Zero bridge connecting Dras with Kargil, and the Chenab bridge connecting Ladakh with Zanskar, get obliterated by missile strikes, effectively cutting off Ladakh.

Communications with naval flotillas are cut and the Naval HQ does not know where and how they are. All links in the military and defense facilities throughout the country are down. The PM is not able to even address the nation,

Within two days of such a bloodbath, the enemy starts advancing in mechanized arms brigades. Marching alongside are unmanned vehicles — tanks and artillery guns — either on wheels or hovering just above the ground. These are humanoid robots not impeded by the absence of roads. Where there are no bridges, unmanned vehicles form bridges for these robots to walk on.

How do the courage and commitment of our gallant soldiers, airmen, and sailors help in such a scenario?

But is this a real scenario?

Who knows how the future will unfold? The real question is—Is this a possible scenario? Is there some proof that China has these capabilities?

The answer is a resounding Yes. In the book, Praveen Sawhney details this scenario exactly. That hypothetical battle scenario is just the first 20 pages of his book. In the remaining 390 pages, he provides proof. Please read that book for proof. While doing so, get impressed by the details he provides. Compare these with how the surgical strikes of 2016 were communicated to us. All that was said was that the Indian army had launched surgical strikes at several launch pads of terrorists which caused significant casualties to the terrorists and those providing support to them. No proof was offered, and no questions were taken after the presser. Just on this much, we citizens believed that India had won a major victory against Pak! The same is the case with what was officially said by the government after the Balakot strike and what the people believed.

Praveen has provided about 100 times more proof of what he claims of the Chinese capability. He has also provided a very logical and lively discussion showing that not only does the capability exist, the course of events in 2024 is very likely to be as shown in his book, unless we do something about it immediately.

In his book, the war ends with Indian forces being asked to surrender in Arunanchal Pradesh after just 9 days of the war. By then the Chinese had cut off the Siliguri corridor, in Ladakh they had reached Zoji La by rolling down from the North as well as the East. Using this opportunity, Pakistan took several positions along the LoC. The world did nothing.

So, why are we being told that the government and the army are ready for China, let alone China plus Pak? This too has been answered by Praveen in his book. On page 68 of the book, he says, “There are three reasons for India walking the dangerous path: its insistence on conducting foreign policy based on not real but potential national power, its ideological doggedness, and its politicized military whose threats are determined by the government.”

So, what is my recommendation here? Just this. Let the Indian military take up a project of evaluating this book by Pravin, with some respected academics as part of the study. That will be a much better utilization of their time than discussing within the house how to incorporate Geeta and Arthashastra into the teachings of the military.

The stakes are too high for India lovers to remain silent.